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A study of more than 920,000 Australians who applied for aged care from 2010 to 2019 found government social welfare payments accounted for 84% to 91% of income for most groups. Researchers say ongoing monitoring is needed to understand whether future retirees will have enough income to meet care costs, particularly as aged care funding rules change.
A study of more than 920,000 Australians who applied for aged care between 2010 and 2019 found that social welfare payments made up 84% to 91% of income for most income groups. The Flinders University and South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute researchers say the findings underline the need to track older people’s financial security as aged care demand grows and funding rules change.
The study examined the financial circumstances, income sources and homeownership of applicants whose average age was 82. Only applicants in the highest income group received a smaller share of their income from social welfare: 59%, according to the research, published in Public Health Research & Practice. The figures describe applicants in the study period, not all older Australians.
The researchers also found that the share of applicants reporting non-government income rose from 12% in 2010 to 30% in 2019. However, the amounts remained relatively small for most people. About 60% of applicants owned their homes, a figure the researchers say may coexist with limited regular income; home equity does not necessarily provide cash readily available for care costs.
The findings come as Australia continues aged care reforms, including the Support at Home Program, which introduces means-testing for non-clinical home services. The study does not evaluate the program or measure its effects. Its authors say the data provide a basis for further research on how income and other financial circumstances affect when and how people use care.
Income Gaps Meet Rising Care Needs
The results matter because the ability to pay regular costs can differ from the value of a person’s home or other assets. Researchers describe some applicants as potentially asset-rich but income-poor: owning a home may not mean they can readily meet care-related expenses without selling or borrowing against it.
That distinction may become more consequential as the number of older people grows relative to the working-age population. The study does not forecast future demand or prove that the welfare system will fail to meet it. Instead, it shows that many people entering the aged care system during the study period relied heavily on public payments, making the adequacy and accessibility of income support an important issue for planning.
For people approaching retirement and their families, the findings also point to the limits of drawing conclusions from homeownership alone. Whether future retirees have enough income to pay for care will depend on their pension eligibility, savings, superannuation and the costs they face under the services available to them.
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Aged Care Applicants, 2010–2019
The analysis used data from South Australia’s Registry of Senior Australians Research Center and covered a national group of people who applied for aged care over nine years. It is a study of applicants, not a survey of every older person or every recipient of aged care. The distinction matters when applying its results to the broader population.
Australia’s retirement income system includes the Age Pension, compulsory superannuation and private savings. The researchers note that superannuation was introduced in 1992, late in the working lives of many people in their study, so they had fewer years to make contributions than later generations may have. At the time covered by the report, about 1.5 million people accessed government-subsidized aged care, including at-home and residential care.
Lead author Associate Professor Stephanie Harrison of Flinders University and SAHMRI said the findings support further work on how financial circumstances affect access. The paper, by Harrison and colleagues, is titled “Socioeconomic profiles of older people entering long-term care: a national evaluation using the Registry of Senior Australians” and appeared in Public Health Research & Practice in 2026.
“This study provides a foundation to support further research into how older people’s income, financial security and other circumstances impact when and how people use aged care.”
— Stephanie Harrison, lead author and associate professor at Flinders University and SAHMRI
What the Study Cannot Establish
The study describes the finances of aged care applicants from 2010 to 2019; it does not show what applicants’ circumstances are today or predict how they will change. It also does not establish whether current welfare payments are adequate to cover care costs, or whether income levels caused people to delay or avoid services.
The reported increase in applicants with non-government income—from 12% to 30%—does not by itself show that most applicants became financially secure. The source says the amounts remained relatively small for most people, but does not provide a general future projection. The effect of the Support at Home Program’s means-testing on access, costs and use of services is also not assessed in this study.
Researchers call for further monitoring, including whether later generations benefit from longer periods of superannuation contributions. The study does not settle how much those contributions will improve retirees’ ability to pay for care.
Monitoring Future Retirement Incomes
The immediate next step identified by the researchers is continued study of older people’s income, financial security and use of aged care. Tracking later cohorts could help show whether they enter care with more superannuation and other non-government income, and whether those resources are sufficient for their needs.
As the Support at Home reforms proceed, information on how means-testing affects access to non-clinical services will be important to judging their practical effects. The source report does not set out a timetable for further research or provide an official assessment of the program’s impact. For now, the study offers historical evidence of substantial welfare reliance among aged care applicants, while leaving the system’s ability to meet future needs unresolved.
Key Questions
What did the Australian study find?
Among more than 920,000 aged care applicants studied from 2010 to 2019, social welfare payments made up 84% to 91% of income for most income groups. The highest income group had a lower share, at 59%.
Does the study show that Australia’s welfare system cannot meet future aged care needs?
No. It reports the income circumstances of applicants during a past period and calls for more monitoring. It does not forecast future demand or determine whether the welfare system will be adequate.
Why does homeownership not necessarily mean someone can afford care?
A home is an asset, but it may not provide regular income or readily available cash. The researchers say homeownership may not translate directly into resources for care-related expenses.
What is the Support at Home Program’s relevance to the findings?
The program is part of ongoing aged care reforms and introduces means-testing for non-clinical home services. The study provides financial context but does not assess how the program will affect access or costs.
Source: medicalxpress.com
